Japan Maritime SDF P3-C surveillance planes Japan Air SDF F-15 fighters Chinese Air Force Su-30 MK2 fighters

"Is this the outbreak of war between Japan and China?" Perhaps, you were surprised by reading this news. Some people were actually tricked by this fake news because it was on a webpage imitating the web design of the "Yahoo! Japan News" that is the largest portal site in Japan. People thought that this is a real news because of the logo of "Yahoo! News" and the credit of "Kyodo News." Nevertheless it is a fake, its stage setting still associates with the real circumstances in the East China Sea that this fake story is likely to turn into a "real news" anytime — the outbreak of the "Second China Incident" that may happen, perhaps tomorrow, or we are already in a war, seriously. This essay deals with the possible "Second China Incident" by corresponding the fake news to the real circumstances.

Some people just believed that this fake news is the real because its description quite resembles the real situation, not just by the appearance of the webpage.

1. Chinese destroyers are disposed around the sea area of the gas field.
2. Chinese destroyers bombard against a Japanese P3-C surveillance plane.

The similar situation already happened in last month. The fake news is quite close to the situation in the East China Sea on September 9. Only the difference is that the Chinese destroyer did not bombard. The fake news is therefore not a complete fiction.

Gas field in the East China Sea: A Chinese missile frigate menaced by pointing a gun at a Japanese patrol plane three weeks ago October 2, 2005 JST 2:00AM Kyodo News (Japan) A Chinese missile frigate had pointed a gun turret at a Japanese naval P3-C surveillance aircraft on September 9 when it confirmed a fleet of five Chinese warships near the Chunxiao gas field, one of the fields in the area being exploited by China. A government source said on October 1, 2005. The Defense Agency assumes that the purpose is only to threaten because the warship's radar gun pointing at the plane was not detected. There has been a conflict between Japan and China regarding to the seabed energy exploration. Tensions have been high in the East China Sea where the Chinese Navy has been increasingly active. Chinese surface group was detected around 9:00 a.m. on September 9 by a Maritime SDF P3-C (1st corps, Kanoya base in Kagoshima) 2 kilometers from the equidistant line in China's side. The group of five warships includes a Sovremenniy-class destroyer (7,940t) and two Jianghu-class missile frigates (1,702t). The frigate and four other military ships spotted by the P3-C did not exceed the equidistant line and were cruising around the gas field. A missile frigate turned its 100 millimeter two-barrel turret and pointed the gun at the P3-C patrolling in the upper air. The crew captured the moment on a photograph. The P3-C immediately left from the scene by following its coping manual. The international convention is to launch a signal with red smoke when a military ship warns foreign planes to leave but it was not launched. P3-C is capable to load missiles and torpedoes but it does not load for normal patrol flights. The Chinese vessel "probably did not intend to shoot, but it is a clear threat and rash conduct," a senior defense ministry official was quoted as saying. (originally written in Japanese) China's naval destroyers cruising around gas fields A Jianghu (江湖) class missile frigate[1] cruising around the Tianwaitian (天外天; Japanese: Kashi  樫) gas field Jianghu class missile frigates cruising around the Chunxiao (春曉; Japanese: Shirakaba  白樺) gas field [2] A Sovremenniy class destroyer 137[3] A Jianghu class missile frigate 515 "Fuzhou" (福州) (pictures from the website of the Japan Maritime SDF )

Moreover,

3. China's five Sukhoi 30 MK2 fighters intrude over Okinawa while pursuing Japanese F-15 fighters.

This description in the fake news is also close to real situation of another occasion. In late September, a Chinese military spy electronic warfare aircraft intruded into Japan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ)[4] and it made Japanese Air Self-Defense Force fighters scramble. The difference is just It was not a fighter but a Chinese spy aircraft invaded Japan's ADIZ.

Another Chinese spy plane spotted near Japan in September October 15, 2005 Kyodo News (Japan) WASHINGTON (Kyodo) — A Chinese military spy plane was spotted in late September south of Kyushu and west of the Nansei Islands, sources close to the matter said Thursday. The same type of electronic warfare aircraft of was spotted twice in August operating in the same areas above the East China Sea. This suggests that Beijing is now engaging in regular radar-research activities around Japan, looking to gather information on electronic waves emitted by military vessels traveling in the area. Beijing and Tokyo remain at odds over China's gas- and oil-exploration projects in the East China Sea. Meanwhile, Japan and the United States are holding talks on boosting their defense cooperation, with the peaceful resolution of the Taiwan issue designated as one of their common strategic objectives. The existence of Chinese electronic warfare aircraft of this kind has not been officially confirmed. But the U.S. Defense Department said in its annual report on Chinese military power in July that China "is improving capabilities of its special-mission aircraft, with a focus on electronic warfare. A government source said Air Self-Defense Force fighters scrambled in the September incident because the Chinese military plane had entered Japan's designated air-defense zone. Japan requires aircraft to notify it in advance of any plan to fly into this zone. The source did not elaborate. But sources close to the matter said the aircraft had external features and flight patterns indicating it was being used to gather radio waves and other electronic information from warships, radar and other military facilities and equipment. (originally written in English) http://www.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/getarticle.pl5?nn20051015a4.htm Chinese Han (漢) class nuclear-powered submarine[5] that intruded Japan's territorial waters in November 2004 (the same type submarine)

Nuclear missiles aiming at Japan's major cities, seabed surveys in Japan's EEZ, intrusion into Japan's territorial waters by a nuclear-powered submarine, dispatching naval warships around the gas field exploitation near EEZ boundaries, a spy electronic warfare aircraft intruding into Japan's ADIZ, and proclamations to discredit Japan's sovereignty over Senkaku Islands (尖閣諸島) and Okinotori Island (沖ノ鳥島)... — these are all China has done in recent years. These violations have not been expanded into disputes because Japan always remains unruffled. If Japan does the exactly same violations against China, what will there happen? This kinds of China's violations against Japan surely caused war if it was some decades ago. Still in the current time, if China does the same things against other countries, it is definitely in danger of causing war. It is rather amazing that no conflicts have occurred so far between Japan and China.

The China Incident (支那事變) [Second Sino-Japanese War][*2][6] was not a "war" Japan wanted to be involved. When we look at every occasion in the history, we can find that Japan always tried to solve between local troops and not to expand battles beyond, and to reconcile in the early time. But China always broke cease-fire agreements, made "surprise attacks" and rejected reconciliations. As a result, Japan was trapped into the endless sequence of battles. Although Japan surpassed China in the military situation, Japan was suffered a stigma of a "defeated country" in the China Incident because Japan was defeated by the United States.

Let's go back to talk about the "Second China Incident." The recent circumstances (diplomatic relations and the Chinese military's activity) suggest quite possible that the outbreak of hostilities between Japan and China could happen any time. It can be triggered by an incidental accident like the fake Yahoo! News rather than starting as an officially declared war.

War without a declaration
= An incident

However, it is quite doubtful whether Japan is prepared to protect our country and people. It has been 60 years after the World War II and there are not many people who experienced the real war at all. Contrary, the Communist China has ever caused invasions and wars many times (invasions on such as Manchura, South Mongolia, East Turkestan and East Kashmir, and its military menace against Taiwan) that is truly an experienced aggressor. The great military power catching up to establish its status a century late, China is a paranoia nation that has been haunted by its megalomaniacs of Sinocentrism, Sino-imperialism and Sino-supremacism. The actual situation of Japan is not we can dream the "eternal peace." The possibility of the "Second China Incident" is not a delusion in the current circumstances and we have to be prepared to win the war to protect our country and people.

Additional Remarks

A spot from the joint naval maneuvers of China and Russia Beijian 2005

The outbreak of the "Second China Incident" is not always caused within two countries. For example, China has been known as North Korea's big brother — a legacy from their blood-cemented alliance in the Korean War (it is said that the alliance is not that firm any longer). If North Korea invades South Korea again, China will be definitely on North Korea's side and Japan will be definitely involved because of the alliance with the United States and South Korea. As a result, Japan and China's military forces will directly confront each other. Another case is that if China launches its "Armed Liberation" (military invasion) against Taiwan. In that case, Japan and the United States will support Taiwan to prevent further invasion on Nansei Islands (南西諸島 or Ryûkyû Islands 琉球諸島)[7] and to protect Japan's sea-lane. As a result, the outbreak of war between allied Japan-US-Taiwan and China may happen.

There is definitely no guarantee whether a "war against China will never happen." If we always escape from confrontation with China, China will eventually dominates Japan. "War" can be caused unilaterally regardless people dream of the ideal of peace. No matter if we don't wish to be involved into a war, it already happened in the history. As long as we see things from a rational viewpoint, it is not hard to find the answer what we have to do in a certain situation. (Picture is a spot from the joint naval maneuvers of China and Russia, Beijian 2005 (北劍2005) on August 18-25, 2005 held in China's Liaodong Peninsula of the Yellow Sea. In general, this maneuvers is viewed as China's "rehearsal" for its military action against Taiwan. Since Japan was excluded from their invitations, this is also China's indication to regard "Japan as a hostile country."

Annotation

*1. The fake Yahoo! News

Ex-programmer arrested for allegedly posting bogus story November 28, 2005 5:00PM USA Today TOKYO (AP) — Police arrested a former computer programmer Monday for allegedly publishing a fabricated news article on a fake Yahoo Japan news website saying China had invaded the Japanese island of Okinawa. Metropolitan Police arrested Takahiro Yamamoto, 30, on suspicion of violating patent laws, said a police spokesman who spoke on condition of anonymity, citing departmental policy. The office said Yamamoto allegedly accredited the fake article to Kyodo News Agency and published it on an Internet site that he had designed to look like Yahoo Japan Corp.'s news site. The story was written in Japanese with a dateline "America, Oct. 18 Kyodo" followed by a headline saying "Chinese Military Invades Okinawa," the police said. Police had confiscated Yamamoto's personal computer and analyzed the data stored in it. Kyodo said both it and Yahoo had filed complaints to police in October. The website was accessed 66,000 times until it was taken down on Oct. 19, Kyodo said, quoting police. http://www.usatoday.com/tech/news/2005-11-28-fake-news-arrest_x.htm

*2. China Incident and the Japano-Ch`ing War

The China Incident (支那事變; 1937-45) is internationally called the "Second Sino-Japanese War" because the previous war between Japan and Manchu China (Ch`ing Dynasty), Nisshin Sensô (日淸戰爭; Japano-Ch`ing War; Chinese: Sino-Japanese 1894 War 中日甲午戰爭;1894-95) has been counted as the "First Sino-Japanese War." However, the Japano-Ch`ing War is a war between Japan and Manchu Ch`ing and the China Incident is a full-scale military conflict between Japan and the Republic of China [Nationalist China] (中華民國) so these two wars are not counted as first and second in Japan.

Terms and Related information (Wikipedia Links)

1. Jianghu class frigate (江湖)
   http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jianghu_class_frigate
   
   
2. Chunxiao gas field (春曉)
   http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chunxiao_gas_field
   
   
3. Sovremenniy class destroyer
   http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sovremenny_class_destroyer
   
   
4. Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ)
   http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_Defense_Identification_Zone
   
   
5. Han (漢) class nuclear-powered submarine
   http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Han_class_submarine
   
   
6. China Incident (支那事變) (or Japano-Chinese Incident 日華事變; English: Second Sino-Japanese War; Chinese: War of Resistance Against Japan 抗日戰爭)
   http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Sino-Japanese_War
   
   
7. Nansei Islands (南西諸島)
   http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ryukyu_Islands